Lillian Meyers
Nancy E. Cook
Lillian Meyers
Nancy E. Cook
Lillian Meyers
Kathleen Leonard
Susan ReberWeekly Market
Update, January 2, 2012
Presented by
Lillian M. Meyers, CFP®,CDFA™,EA
General market
news
· The final week
of 2011 saw trading that mimicked what we saw throughout the year: back-and-forth
moves, volatility, and very little net change when all was said and done.
· Looking back at
the last year, the risk-off trade was the major theme within the equity space. More
defensive sectors like utilities, consumer staples, health care, and telecom
were the best performers.
· Technical
factors have continued to play a key role in the equity markets and the
sideways trading we’ve seen over the past several weeks. Based on current
trends, we could potentially see a critical break in one direction or the other
in the coming weeks.
· Greece must
finalize a deal for its second bailout of €130 billion or face an exit from the
eurozone. The next three months will be crucial for the indebted nation.
· Countries in the
G7 will need to refinance roughly $7.6 trillion of debt this year. This amount
could increase to as much as $8 trillion if interest payments are included.
Japan leads the way with $3 trillion in debt, followed by the U.S. with $2.8
trillion.
· Treasury notes
fell to begin the new year, as fresh economic data showed an improvement in
manufacturing.
|
Equity Index |
Week-to-Date % |
Month-to-Date % |
Year-to-Date % |
12-Month % |
|
S&P 500 |
–0.58% |
1.02% |
2.11% |
2.11% |
|
Nasdaq Composite |
–0.50% |
–0.51% |
–0.79% |
–0.79% |
|
DJIA |
–0.60% |
1.58% |
8.38% |
8.38% |
|
MSCI EAFE |
–0.55% |
–2.27% |
–12.86% |
–12.86% |
|
MSCI Emerging Markets |
–1.43% |
–1.43% |
–18.57% |
–18.57% |
|
Russell 2000 |
–0.88% |
0.66% |
–4.17% |
–4.17% |
|
Fixed Income Index |
Month-to-Date % |
Year-to-Date % |
12-Month % |
|
U.S. Aggregate |
1.10% |
7.84% |
7.84% |
|
U.S. Treasury |
0.97% |
9.81% |
9.81% |
|
U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities |
0.70% |
6.23% |
6.23% |
|
Municipal Bond |
1.90% |
10.70% |
10.70% |
|
U.S. Treasury: U.S. TIPS |
0.04% |
13.56% |
13.56% |
What
to look forward to
ISM Manufacturing
rose to a six-month high of 53.9 in December, coming in slightly above
analysts’ expectations for a reading of 53.2. Expectations are also mildly
positive for the Thursday release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite,
which may see a slight increase to 53 from 52. Generally, a reading of above 50
from these two indicators suggests continued economic growth.
The most important economic data on tap this
week will address the employment situation in the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls
are expected to have risen by a respectable 150,000 jobs. Excluding the
anticipated negative influence of fewer government positions, 170,000 new
private sector job openings may have been filled. In spite of this, many economists
believe the Unemployment Rate may
rise slightly, to 8.7 percent from 8.6 percent. This could occur as a result of
an increase in the number of Americans who describe themselves as searching for
a job—even if the absolute number of employed individuals rises.
Disclosures: Certain sections
of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our
reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions.
Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve
certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for
direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future
results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500
industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite
Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market,
except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large
companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been
adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the
prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual
performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a
float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market
equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets
Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies
representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in
Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures
the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. The
Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted
performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including
government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with
maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the
auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve.
The Barclays Capital Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged
market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by
mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal
National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage
Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The
Barclays Capital Municipal Bond Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt,
and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected
from issues larger than $50 million. The Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury
Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) Index measures the performance of
intermediate (1- to 10-year) U.S. TIPS.
###
Lillian Meyers (CA Insurance Lic.# 0809561) is a financial
advisor practicing at 670 West Napa Street, Suite C, Sonoma, CA 95476. She
offers securities as a registered representative of Commonwealth Financial
Network®, a member firm of FINRA/SIPC. Her firm, Meyers Financial, is
a Registered Investment Adviser. She can be reached at (707) 935-1124 (707) 935-1124 (707) 935-1124
or at Lillian@meyersfinancial.com.
Strictly intended for individuals in: CA, CO, ID, IL, PA, No offers may be made or accepted from any
resident outside these states due to various state and registration requirements
regarding investment products and services. Check us out at www.meyersfinancial.com
Authored
by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.
© 2012
Commonwealth Financial Network®
Weekly Market
Update, December 19, 2011
Presented by
Lillian M Meyers, CFP®,CDFA™, EA
General market
news
·
Equity markets moved lower last week as the
S&P 500 dropped 2.8 percent. The market has seesawed for a few months now,
and last Friday’s close left us within 5 points of the close in mid-October.
·
Ongoing uncertainty in the eurozone, as well as
downgrades from rating agency Fitch and more budget battles, captured the
headlines last week and were the likely culprit behind the equity market
declines.
·
Treasuries rallied across the curve, as concerns
in Europe sent investors to the perceived safety of these investments. Yields
on longer bonds were at their lowest levels in almost two months.
·
Last week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
announcement was limited in detail and not much changed from the prior month’s release.
It is likely that the FOMC needs a little more time/information before it
decides on its next possible move.
·
One year after allegations of possible defaults
led to a sweeping municipal bond selloff, the municipal bond space has returned
10.5 year-to-date and appears to be finishing the year off strong.
·
International equities have continued to
struggle amid news of slowing growth in emerging markets, as well as ongoing sovereign
debt problems in Europe. Weaker currencies have contributed to the downturn as
well, as the euro lost another 2.5 percent last week alone. It has lost 12
percent since its peak in early May 2011.
|
Equity Index |
Week-to-Date % |
Month-to-Date % |
Year-to-Date % |
12-Month % |
|
S&P 500 |
–2.78% |
–2.10% |
–1.04% |
0.19% |
|
Nasdaq Composite |
–3.43% |
–2.44% |
–2.72% |
–2.12% |
|
DJIA |
–2.54% |
–1.37% |
5.24% |
5.98% |
|
MSCI EAFE |
–4.17% |
–4.09% |
–14.48% |
–12.93% |
|
MSCI Emerging Markets |
–3.98% |
–3.36% |
–20.16% |
–17.26% |
|
Russell 2000 |
–3.08% |
–2.00% |
–6.71% |
–5.79% |
|
Fixed Income Index |
Month-to-Date % |
Year-to-Date % |
12-Month % |
|
U.S. Aggregate |
0.99% |
7.72% |
8.87% |
|
U.S. Treasury |
1.09% |
9.95% |
10.91% |
|
U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities |
0.48% |
6.07% |
7.31% |
|
Municipal Bond |
1.35% |
10.10% |
10.84% |
|
U.S. Treasury: U.S. TIPS |
0.23% |
13.78% |
14.84% |
What
to look forward to
Economists
predict that Existing Home Sales may have risen 2.1 percent in November
and that New Home Sales could have improved by 2 percent on a seasonally
adjusted basis. Sales have been so depressed, however, that a change of a few
percentage points in either direction is not very meaningful. New home sales
are still at their lowest levels since the U.S. Department of Commerce began
recording data in 1963.
It
is worth keeping an eye on the next revision of Third-Quarter Gross Domestic
Product (GDP). Analysts believe that it will remain unchanged at 2 percent.
Durable Goods Orders, set for release on Friday, will help economists
discern the strength of growth in the current quarter. Analysts believe that orders
for long-lasting goods may have risen 2.2 percent in November, after having
fallen somewhat in October.
Both
Personal Income and Personal Spending are thought to have
increased 0.3 percent in November. Although the actual numbers have fluctuated
somewhat, they generally have been supportive of continued economic growth.
The
Leading Indicators report is expected to show a continued expectation of
growth, albeit at a slower pace. Some investors may react to this print, but it
is worth taking the data with a grain of salt, since the index has predicted
some “false positives” in the past.
Disclosures: Certain sections
of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our
reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions.
Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve
certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for
direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future
results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500
industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite
Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market,
except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large
companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been
adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the
prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual
performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a
float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market
equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets
Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies
representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in
Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures
the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. The
Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted
performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including
government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with
maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the
auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve.
The Barclays Capital Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged
market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by
mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal
National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage
Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The
Barclays Capital Municipal Bond Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt,
and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected
from issues larger than $50 million. The Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury
Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) Index measures the performance of
intermediate (1- to 10-year) U.S. TIPS.
###
Lillian Meyers (CA Insurance Lic.# 0809561) is a financial
advisor practicing at 670 West Napa Street, Suite C, Sonoma, CA 95476. She
offers securities as a registered representative of Commonwealth Financial
Network®, a member firm of FINRA/SIPC. Her firm, Meyers Financial, is
a Registered Investment Adviser. She can be reached at (707) 935-1124 (707) 935-1124 (707) 935-1124
or at Lillian@meyersfinancial.com.
Strictly intended for individuals in: CA, CO, ID, IL, PA, No offers may be made or accepted from any
resident outside these states due to various state and registration
requirements regarding investment products and services. Check us out at www.meyersfinancial.com
Authored
by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.
© 2011
Commonwealth Financial Network®
Weekly
Market Update, November 28, 2011
Presented by
Lillian Meyers, CFP®, CDFA™, EA
General market
news
·
Equity
markets continued to slide, posting four days of losses last week, after
several down days in the prior week. In total, the S&P 500 Index has lost
ground in all of its last seven trading days, declining nearly 8 percent.
·
A
German 10-year bund auction failed to get bids for 35 percent of its auction
last week, subsequently increasing the yield of the issue.
·
The
super-committee of six Republicans and six Democrats failed to come to an
agreement on a more significant deficit reduction by its November 23 deadline.
·
Federal
bankruptcy judge Mary France ruled against the city of Harrisburg and will not
allow it to seek bankruptcy protection.
·
Technical
support levels in the equity markets proved to be no match for selling pressures,
which caused the S&P 500 to break through several key thresholds. The next
major support level is in the range of 1,115–1,120—which was last tested at the
end of the summer.
·
Trading
volume in the equity markets has been very light over the past few weeks. This
can likely be attributed to the Thanksgiving holiday; at the same time, the
lack of volume can increase volatility and provide a backdrop for momentum to
shift the market one way or another on little conviction.
|
Equity Index |
Week-to-Date % |
Month-to-Date % |
Year-to-Date % |
12-Month % |
|
S&P 500 |
–4.66% |
–7.34% |
–6.14% |
–0.56% |
|
Nasdaq Composite |
–5.06% |
–8.87% |
–7.10% |
–2.66% |
|
DJIA |
–4.71% |
–5.74% |
–0.61% |
3.97% |
|
MSCI EAFE |
–5.52% |
–11.79% |
–17.39% |
–13.88% |
|
MSCI Emerging Markets |
–4.88% |
–10.64% |
–20.95% |
–17.08% |
|
Russell 2000 |
–7.38% |
–10.01% |
–14.02% |
–8.38% |
Please note: Due to a
technical error with our data provider, performance information for fixed
income indices is unavailable this week. We apologize for the inconvenience.
What
to look forward to
This
week will provide some color on three of the economy’s major drivers. Analysts
believe that the Federal Housing Finance Authority House Price Index may
have risen slightly in September. At the same time, the Case-Shiller 20-City
Home Price Composite index is believed to have fallen. While the conflict
in these statistics is somewhat frustrating, the takeaway is that not much is
expected to change from a housing perspective.
Some
mild improvements may manifest themselves in the manufacturing sector. ISM
Manufacturing is anticipated to have risen to 51.5 in November, from 50.8
in the prior month. The outlook in the Dallas Fed Manufacturing region was
also optimistic—and the index improved from 2.3 to 3.2 in November.
Manufacturing is not clicking on all cylinders like it was earlier in the year,
but it has continued to push forward, despite headwinds.
Analysts
believe that 120,000 new Nonfarm Payrolls may have been added in
November. Private Payrolls, which exclude the effect of government
hiring and firing, may have increased by 145,000. The increases are not
expected to affect the Unemployment Rate, which economists think will
remain at 9 percent. Recent initial jobless claims data has been somewhat
encouraging, suggesting that the employment situation may even be improving
slightly.
Disclosures: Certain sections
of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our
reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking
statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks
and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for
direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future
results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500
industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite
Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market,
except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large
companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been
adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the
prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual
performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a
float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market
equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets
Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies
representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in
Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures
the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. The
Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted
performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including
government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with
maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the
auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve.
The Barclays Capital Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged
market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by
mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal
National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage
Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The
Barclays Capital Municipal Bond Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt,
and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected
from issues larger than $50 million. The Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury
Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) Index measures the performance of
intermediate (1- to 10-year) U.S. TIPS.
###
Lillian Meyers (CA Insurance Lic.# 0809561) is a financial
advisor practicing at 670 West Napa Street, Suite C, Sonoma, CA 95476. She
offers securities as a registered representative of Commonwealth Financial
Network®, a member firm of FINRA/SIPC. Her firm, Meyers Financial, is
a Registered Investment Adviser. She can be reached at (707) 935-1124 (707) 935-1124 (707) 935-1124
or at Lillian@meyersfinancial.com.
Strictly intended for individuals in: CA, CO, ID, IL, PA, No offers may be made or accepted from any
resident outside these states due to various state and registration
requirements regarding investment products and services. Check us out at www.meyersfinancial.com
Authored
by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.
© 2011
Commonwealth Financial Network®
Join
us for our next wealth management session on "Estate Planning: Dos and Don'ts." February 23, 2012 from 12:00-1:30pm. Oakmont, CA. Lunch provided!
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a Commonwealth Financial Network program that provides hand-knit hats to children undergoing cancer treatment.

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"You gain strength, courage and confidence by every experience in which you really stop to look fear in the face. You are able to say to yourself, 'I have lived through this horror. I can take the next thing that comes along.' You must do the thing you think you cannot do."
- Eleanor Roosevelt